Lithiumcarbonat-spotforsyningen bliver strammere, lithium-ionbatteriindeks steg 82,75 procent i løbet af året
Recently, Guotai Junan's announcement about the third price increase of lithium resources has caused a heated discussion in the market. It believes that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate is the first to lead the rise. The supply and demand of lithium continue to be tight in a short time. Prices may remain strong.
According to Guotai Junan's analysis, the first time the price of lithium resources increased was from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. The second price increase was from the end of June this year, when the price of lithium was 90,000 yuan / ton, and by the end of September, the price of lithium was close to the historical high of 180,000 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 195,000-200,000 yuan per ton, and stocking up a year ago will become the core catalyst for the third rise.
A reporter from "Securities Daily" combed the Flush Lithium-ion Battery Index (885710) and found that during the first price increase of lithium resources, the index fluctuated less and remained at around 900 points, but it began to rise rapidly in May 2021, and once surged As high as 1700 points, during the second price increase, the index rose by 50 percent , and fell back to around 1500 points in late September. After entering November, the index started a new wave of gains. As of November 24, the index reached 1679 points, an increase of 82.75 percent during the year.
Qu Yinfei, en lithiumanalytiker ved Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, fortalte Securities Daily-reporteren, at den stadig mere åbenlyse modsætning mellem udbud og efterspørgsel har foranlediget prisstigningen på lithiumressourcer. På nuværende tidspunkt er årsagerne til den aktuelle markedsprisstigning ud over den fortsatte stigning i prisen på miner, og modsætningen mellem udbud og efterspørgsel er stadig højdepunktet i prisstigningen. en. Påvirket af nedlukningen af nogle få smelteterminaler er spotforsyningen af lithiumkarbonat blevet mere og mere stram, og der er færre eksportressourcer. Derudover er downstream-stemningen høj, og tendensen til lithiumkarbonatmarkedet er relativt klar.
Qu Yinfei said: "The rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased downstream cost pressure, so downstream companies also intend to increase prices, but there is a lag in price transmission. During the price increase, downstream companies' profits will be due to the high price of raw materials. my country's dependence on imported lithium mines is extremely high, and rising prices of lithium mine resources are one of the future trends. Therefore, some industry chain companies actively deploy overseas lithium mines, which can effectively control the cost of raw materials and lay the foundation for subsequent company expansion. ."
Der er få indenlandske lithiummalmressourcer, men lithiumsaltressourcer er meget rige. Derfor er kapitalmarkedet under forventning om prisstigninger på lithiumressourcer opmærksomme på indenlandske virksomheders fusioner og opkøb af oversøiske lithiummalmressourcer, hvilket gør Ningde Times, Tianqi Lithium og andre aktivt Børsnoterede virksomheder, der anvender oversøiske lithiummalmressourcer. anerkendt af markedet og eftertragtet af fonde. På den anden side, med fokus på konceptet med lithiumudvinding fra saltsøer, er børsnoterede virksomheder med relaterede saltfeltressourcer og teknologier også blevet fokus på det seneste marked.
Zhang Cuixia, chefinvesteringskonsulent for Jufeng Investment, påpegede over for Securities Dailys reporter, at lithiumressourcesektoren er blevet en af de hotteste spor i år, da de nyder godt af det fortsatte boom i downstream nye energikøretøjer, lithiumbatterier og andre industrier. og under den globale bølge af ny energi stiger prisen på lithiumressourcer også, hvilket viser en intensiverende tendens. Denne form for prisstigning gør opstrøms i industrikæden til den største fordel, men vi skal være opmærksomme på virkningen på nedstrømsindustrien, fordi der ikke er nogen industrialliance til at koordinere balancen mellem udbud og efterspørgsel og den kraftige stigning i Prisen på upstream-råvarer vil påvirke nedstrømsindustriens omsætning og nettoresultat. Det fører endda til en yderligere stigning i modsætningen mellem upstream og downstream udbud og efterspørgsel.
Zhang Cuixia added: "In order to cope with the increase in resource prices, domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain companies have launched overseas lithium mine acquisitions, which has also become a hot spot for capital to pursue. However, with the current high lithium resources, the acquisition price is also rising. It may bring obvious financial pressure to listed companies, and some unpredictable risks may occur in lithium ore reserves and mining costs. At present, the lithium-ion battery sector has risen too high, and some listed companies have already had high valuations. The value premium, even if there is still room for price increases in lithium resources in the future, the risks of related listed companies are also accumulating, and the room and motivation for the increase is not high."
