The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
På den ene side bestod lithiumbatterigiganten CATL IPO-mødet på 24 dage og satte ny rekord for IPO-møde; på den anden side udsendte Jianruiwo Neng endnu en gang en meddelelse om reduktion af aktionærer og forudså samtidig et tab på mere end 300 millioner yuan i årets første kvartal. Du skal vide, at Jianrui Wo Neng blev nummer tre i den installerede batterikapacitet i hjemmet i 2017, kun næst efter CATL og BYD, og opnåede et overskud på 254 millioner i første kvartal sidste år. Da den tekniske rute blev justeret, og den indenlandske nye energipolitiske tilskudspolitik gradvist blev trukket tilbage, intensiveredes omstillingen af strømbatteriselskaber. Sidste år udvekslede ikke kun CATL og BYD pladser, men resultaterne fra mange små og mellemstore-virksomheder faldt også.
Batterifirmaer bliver angrebet af begge sider
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Strømbatteriet er kernekomponenten i det nye energikøretøj, og omkostningerne tegner sig for 30 procent -50 procent af hele køretøjet. Tilskuddet falder, og strømbatterivirksomheden skal også bære det tilsvarende prisnedsættelsespres. På den ene side lægger kunderne pres på batteriprisnedsættelserne, og på den anden side hæver upstream-leverandørerne priserne vildt. Batteriselskabernes situation kan forestilles. Selv i CATL, hvor ternære lithiumbatterier tegnede sig for næsten halvdelen af dets salg i 2017, var bruttoavancen for dets hovedproduktstrømbatterisystemer fra 2015 til 2017 henholdsvis 41,40 procent, 44,84 procent og 35,25 procent, hvilket faldt betydeligt i 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Udskiftning af batterihovedplade
Ifølge dataene var de fem største globale salg af strømbatterier i 2017 CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma og LG Chem, med salg på henholdsvis 11,84GWh, 10GWh, 7,2GWh, 5,5GWh og 4,5GWh. I udlandet er Panasonic førende inden for strømbatterier i Japan, og LG og Samsung er de to strømbatterier i Sydkorea. Med deres enorme størrelse udnytter de deres skala og er i en førende position inden for batteriteknologi og automatisering.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
I 2016 rangerede BYD først i Kina og nummer to i verden for strømbatterier. Med den pludselige fremkomst af Ningde-æraen faldt dens ydeevne i 2017.
På grund af den hurtige stigning i batteriproduktionskapaciteten og faldet i tilskudspolitikken til nye energikøretøjer er prisen på strømbatterisystemet i CATL imidlertid blevet kraftigt reduceret, fra 2,28 yuan/Wh i 2015 til 1,41 yuan/Wh i 2017, et kumulativt fald på op til 38,26 procent . Nettoresultatet efter fradrag af ikke-fradrag i CATL faldt også fra 2,96 milliarder yuan i 2016 til 2,47 milliarder yuan i 2017.
På nuværende tidspunkt er den almindelige tekniske rute for nye energi-personbilsbatterier ternære batterier (ternære batterier er også den vigtigste tekniske rute for CATL), dvs. lithiumbatterier med nikkel-koboltlithiummanganat eller nikkel{{1} }koboltlithiumaluminat som katodematerialer og kobolt som katodemateriale. Stabilisatorer er uundværlige. Ternær lithium har høj energitæthed og kan give længere batterilevetid. I 2017 er prisen på ternære lithiumbatterier faldet til minimum 1,4-1,5 yuan/Wh, hvilket stort set er det samme som lithiumjernfosfat. Fremkomsten af ternære batterier er en vigtig grund til, at Ningde-æraen overhalede BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Alvorlig overkapacitet af strømbatteri
Dataene viser, at i 2017 var den installerede kapacitet af batterier til nye energikøretøjer i mit land 36,27 Gwh, en stigning på ca. 60GWh estimeret af industrien i begyndelsen af 2017; og den tekniske rute for lithium-batterier har undergået store ændringer. Markedsandelen for strømbatterier overstiger 44 procent, hvilket er fordoblet fra 2016. Dette er også noget, som Jian Ruiwu ikke kan forvente.
På den anden side var produktionen og salgsvolumen af nye energikøretøjer i mit land sidste år tæt på 800,000 enheder, en stigning på 50 procent sammenlignet med 2016; produktionen af nye energi-passagerbiler nåede op på 478,000 enheder, en år-til-stigning på mere end 200,000 enheder. Det er klart, at vækstraten for den installerede batterikapacitet ikke kan følge med vækstraten for produktion og salg af nye energikøretøjer, fordi produktions- og salgsstrukturen for nye energikøretøjer har ændret sig, og andelen af personbiler og specialkøretøjer er steget hurtigt. . Under den nedadgående tendens på markedet for nye energi-passagerbiler, er de nye energi-passagerbiler, der fortsætter med at gøre store fremskridt, blevet kernen i væksten i strømbatteriets ydeevne.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
I Kina er BYD den mest truende konkurrent i CATL-æraen. Denne tidligere batterioverherre blev overhalet af CATL med hensyn til forsendelser sidste år. For at genvinde batteriets førende position foretog BYD to vigtige justeringer: Den ene er at justere batteriteknologiens rute. Siden 2017 er BYD begyndt at bruge ternære lithiumbatterier i sin personbilsvirksomhed, og rene elektriske modeller produceret i 2018 og senere vil også bruge ternære lithiumbatterier. Batterivirksomheder som f.eks. CATL og Guoxuan Hi-Tech er dog også begyndt at udvide produktionskapaciteten for ternære batterier. Den anden er at udskille kraftbatterivirksomheden og drive den uafhængigt for at forsyne andre virksomheder med nye energikøretøjer.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
