"Internal" power lithium battery
The media coverage appears to be lagging behind the battery companies' production expansion. While we are still discussing whether the global power lithium-ion battery production will be excessive in 2025, battery companies have already started a new round of production expansion. On December 8th, on the second battery day of Honeycomb Energy, the company, which was established less than four years ago, raised its target for the Nth time - challenging 600GWh of production and 450GWh of shipments in 2025. At the first Battery Day in 2020, it aimed to reach 40GWh of shipments in 2025.
Mens Honeycomb Energy øgede sit mål med 10 gange inden for et år, på den anden side underskrev CATL den 8. december en samarbejds- og investeringsaftale med Suzhou kommunale regering; den 7. december annoncerede LG, som var nummer to i verden, New Energy også, at de planlægger at rejse titusindvis af milliarder af dollars for at blive børsnoteret... Drevet af nye energikøretøjer er kraftfulde lithium-ion-batterier blevet et af de mest livlige numre i år. Og som alle potentielle og konkurrencedygtige spor er involution uundgåelig i denne branche.
Production planning, another round of "go ahead"
There are two "famous" rumors in the battery industry: one is that Xiaopeng Motors CEO He Xiaopeng stayed in the Ningde era for a week in order to get the battery; the other is that there are at least seven "bosses" of OEMs in Ningde every day. The times stand guard. Although both He Xiaopeng and CATL denied the rumors in the end, the lack of battery supply is evident. So this year's power lithium-ion battery industry has a clear trend - expanding production has become one of the main themes.
Ud fra statistikken er det ikke svært at finde det fra første-trin CATL og BYD til anden-tier Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Zhongxinhang (China Aviation Lithium), Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, og derefter til den tredje-tier Funeng Technology, Ruipu Energy, Xinwangda, osv., har alle mainstream power lithium-ion batteriproducenter startet produktionsudvidelse i år. Selv uanset den nuværende skala, har de næsten alle sat sig et ambitiøst 2025-produktionsmål i år:
In addition to Honeycomb Energy's announcement that it will challenge 600GWh of production in 2025 and ship 450GWh, some institutions have previously predicted that its output in 2025 will also be about 600GWh according to the production plan of CATL;
BYD har nyheder om, at dens produktion i 2025 kan nå op på 430GWh;
Guoxuan Hi-Tech udtalte i sin halv-årsrapport, at det vil stræbe efter at opnå en produktionsskala på 300 GWh i 2025;
I strategimeddelelsesmødet sagde China Innovation Airlines klart, at den planlagte produktion i 2025 vil nå 500GWh;
Liu Jincheng, formand for Yiwei Lithium Energy, udtalte ligeud, at målet i 2025 er at producere 200GWh strømlagringsbatterier;
Produktionsplanen for Ruipu Energy i 2025 er 200GWh;
Med Mercedes-Benz' velsignelse annoncerede Funeng Technology også, at dets produktionsmål i 2025 forventes at overstige 120 GWh;
...
På denne måde, netop disse virksomheder, er produktionsplanen i 2025 allerede tæt på 3000GWh.
I de fleste forskningsinstitutioners forudsigelser vil efterspørgslen efter strømlithium-ion-batterier i 2025 være omkring 1 TWh. Med andre ord, hvis den nuværende produktionsplan er avanceret, vil overproduktionen af hele kraftlithium-ionbatteriindustrien blive uundgåelig. Men i forbindelse med den stigende efterspørgsel efter downstream-batterier, er hver virksomhed i det mere villige til at tro, at de kan drage fordel af vinden. Med hensyn til om de vil stå over for overproduktion, viste de alle absolut tillid.
Previously, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei Lithium Energy, once said that in the face of this risk, the company must continuously improve the quality and performance of its products. And Liu Jingyu, chairman of China Innovation Airlines, said bluntly, "As long as the company's technology passes the test, there will be no excess production." When the entire industry is in a frenzy, the competitors in the industry will inevitably fall into a strategic position of either advancing or retreating. In the head company to expand production, others can only be coerced forward. Otherwise, there will only be an outcome of being eliminated.
The competition for raw materials is as "crazy" as the land
At the end of October this year, Australian miner Cattlin released a set of data. The average price of lithium concentrate, an important raw material for power lithium-ion batteries, reached 1,650/ton in the fourth quarter, up 112 percent from 779/ton in the third quarter. This has never been the case before. Along with the expansion of production, the "mine grabbing war" in the upstream of the power lithium-ion battery industry is also in full swing.
Take lithium ore as an example. Since this raw material is highly dependent on imports, domestic battery manufacturers have gone overseas to buy lithium mines overseas with banknotes. Among them, I have to mention the "Ning Lithium War" between the Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium Industry. When it initially planned to acquire Canadian lithium company Millennium Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium expected the transaction to be worth no more than C353 million.
But who knows that in September, the Ningde era crossed the bar and raised the price to 376.8 million Canadian dollars. In the end, Ganfeng Lithium, which was unwilling to give up, had to raise the price again to about 500 million Canadian dollars. In this regard, some people in the industry once sighed, "Now grabbing upstream lithium resources is just as fierce and crazy as the previous soil auction market."
Prisændringer på lithiumkarbonatråvarer i 2019-2021
For at opnå flere upstream-ressourcer måtte disse batteriproducenter, der oprindeligt fokuserede på fremstilling, også begynde at lære kapitaldrift og bruge kapital til at investere i industrikæden for at udvide deres stemme i industrien. I april i år etablerede Honeycomb Energy officielt Honeycomb Capital og brugte 2 milliarder yuan til at oprette to fonde til vækst og innovation og til at deltage i og kontrollere nogle leverandører.
Tilfældigvis investerede AVIC Lithium i september også i et kapitalselskab, Kaibo (Hainan) Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. Lederen, Ningde Times, investerede og deltog i etableringen af 8 private equity investeringsfonde i år, med flere end 40 udenlandske investeringer. Det kan siges, at konkurrencen fra producenter af strømlithium-ionbatterier ikke længere er begrænset til teknologi og output. Selv de dominerende virksomheder skal være dygtige til alle otte slags kampsport inden for hele erhvervsområdet.
Fra navngivning til masseproduktionstid, teknisk rute, omfattende involution
Selv når det kommer til at navngive batterierne, skal de vide præcis den rigtige måde.
Before the emergence of BYD's blade battery, people's cognition of the category of power lithium-ion batteries mostly stayed on ternary lithium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. After BYD's blade battery became well-known with its technical strength and simple image, the naming of power lithium-ion batteries even began to be rolled out.
From the sodium-ion batteries of the Ningde era to the short-knife batteries of Honeycomb Energy, even car companies have come to join in the fun. GAC's magazine battery, Great Wall's Dayu battery, Lantu's amber battery, Zhiji's silicon-doped lithium-ion battery... Some of these are new names brought by new technologies, and some are trying to use simple and easy-to-remember names. To package and summarize your selling point, so that people can quickly remember.
As a result, today's power lithium-ion battery industry has become like the automotive industry. "A good name is not everything, but no good name is absolutely impossible." Even the involution of this marketing continues to who can mass-produce solid-state batteries first. In recent years, solid-state batteries have gradually been recognized as the next-generation battery technology solution that could disrupt the entire automotive industry. Therefore, in order to attract the attention of consumers, battery companies and car companies have recently begun to announce the mass production time of solid-state batteries to the outside world. And the first of them is Weilai.
I slutningen af sidste år annoncerede Weilai et 150 kWh solid-batteri på NIODay og sagde, at solid-state-batteriet kan opnå en ultra-høj energitæthed på 360Wh/kg. NIO ET7 sedan udstyret med denne batteripakke vil have en rækkevidde på mere end 1,000 kilometer, og produktet er planlagt til at blive leveret i fjerde kvartal af 2022. Men efter at denne nyhed blev annonceret, tiltrak den en meget tvivl. Mange praktiserende læger sagde, at i henhold til den nuværende teknologi kan solid-batterier ikke masseproduceres- til elektriske køretøjer.
Zeng Yuqun, formand for Ningde Times, indrømmede endda, at om 3 til 5 år er alle faste-batterier, der kan bruges i biler, ikke alle-solid-batterier. Om Wei Lai vil blive slået i ansigtet eller vil bevise sig selv, og give det til tiden. Men for at øge konkurrenceevnen for deres nye energimodeller samarbejder nogle indenlandske og udenlandske bilfirmaer ikke kun med batterileverandører i joint ventures, men udvikler også personligt deres egen batteriteknologi og bygger deres egne batterifabrikker, hvilket er en solid trend. .
Earlier, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, once mentioned, "The global auto industry has already started the battle for battery talent, and GAC poached some core talents from LG, Samsung, and Japan's Yuasa five years ago. ". Through independent research and development in the past few years, GAC has indeed made good progress in super-speed batteries and sponge silicon anode sheet batteries.
Men mens de konstant udfordrer den vanskelige flydende lithium-ion-batteriteknologi, for at øge fremtidige forhandlingschips, anvender mange bilselskaber også diversificerede batteriveje. Tager man GAC Group som eksempel, vil de ifølge Zeng Qinghong accelerere udviklingen af-brintbrændstofdrevne lithiumbatterier og fast-batterier.
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Not long ago, SNEResearch, a South Korean market research institution, announced the global power lithium-ion battery installed capacity rankings for October and January-October 2021. The data shows that in the ranking TOP10, Chinese companies occupy 6 seats. At the same time, CATL has a market share of 34.2 percent , which is far ahead of the three Korean giants LG New Energy, SK Innovation, Samsung SDI, and Japan's Panasonic.
However, in recent days, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said in an interview that although my country is currently in an absolute leading position in the supply of automotive power lithium-ion batteries, it is still in solid-state batteries. In the field, it will take at least five years for my country to catch up with Japan. For domestic battery companies, while competing with each other, don't forget to look up and look further ahead.
Nogle oplysninger reference:
Voting China.com "Really The Most Inward Rolling Track in History, 350 Billion in Half a Year, 7 Bosses Are Rumored to "Squat and Take Goods""
Die Zeit "Fairy Fights! The Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium rushed to buy lithium mines overseas, as crazy as the previous local auctions"
autocarweekly "The hardest part of making a battery is naming it"
Yicai "Car companies get together to bet on solid-state batteries, what are the chances of winning this technical route? express
